- The line between persuasion and manipulation is becoming increasingly blurred, particularly as AI-generated deepfakes gain sophistication.
- Governments and tech companies need to collaborate to create regulations that balance privacy with transparency, ensuring accountability in political messaging.
- The future will likely see increased regulation, stronger data privacy measures, and further integration of advanced technologies like AI, AR, and VR to engage voters in new ways.
The ubiquity of smartphones, declining trust in traditional media and the powerful capabilities of AI—which have enabled more direct and personalised communication between candidates and voters—has resulted in mobile messaging apps becoming the dominant medium for political campaigns in this year of elections.
A record number of people either have voted or are set to vote in 64 countries – about 49 per cent of the global population. And mobile platforms like WhatsApp, Telegram, and Signal, along with SMS texts, have seen explosive growth in political usage due to their unparalleled reach and immediacy.
In countries like India, Brazil, and the United States, these apps have become essential tools for political campaigns, effectively bypassing traditional media channels.
Growing reliance on mobile messaging
The sheer volume of political messaging in the 2024 US elections underscores the transformative role these platforms play.
Thomas Peters, founder and CEO of RumbleUp—a peer-to-peer texting platform widely used by the Republican Party—highlighted this shift, noting that 2024 is expected to see a 50 per cent increase in political messaging compared to 2022, when about 16 billion messages were sent.
“I would be surprised if we didn’t at least reach 25 billion political messages, both sides, between now and November 5th of this year,” Peters told the audience of a panel during the MEF Leadership Forum Americas in Miami, Florida.
This surge illustrates the growing reliance on mobile messaging and the scale at which campaigns are investing in these new forms of communication. The reasons are pretty clear. According to research conducted by cybersecurity firm Proofpoint, most US adults (60 per cent) prefer to get their news through digital media.
An even higher percentage (86 per cent) will often or sometimes consume news via a smartphone, tablet or computer. And most of the US voting population (97 per cent) has access to mobile messaging.
Mobile phone political messaging offers significant benefits, such as increasing voter engagement, particularly among younger and disenfranchised voters. It also provides a direct and efficient channel for candidates to inform the electorate about key issues, ultimately enhancing democratic participation.
Power and risks of AI
In India, where general elections were held from April 19th to June 1st, AI-driven deepfake technology was used to impersonate both deceased and living politicians, delivering messages under the guise of familiar leaders.
According to cybersecurity firm McAfee, one in four Indians (22 per cent) reported encountering political content that was later discovered to be a deepfake. About 75 per cent had encountered deepfake content in the 12 months before March, with many expressing concern about its use for impersonating public figures, undermining trust in media, and influencing elections.
Similarly, in Pakistan, AI was used to simulate messages from imprisoned political leader Imran Khan, creating a scenario where voters received communications from a figure currently behind bars.
In the US, AI-generated messages have impersonated candidates, further blurring the line between reality and manipulation. A fake robocall from “President Joe Biden” highlighted the growing concern over misinformation.
According to a McAfee study, 43 per cent of Americans are worried about deepfakes influencing elections, 37 per cent about undermining trust in media, and 43 per cent about impersonating public figures.
In the UK, just before July 4th snap elections, deepfake audio clips of Labour Party Leader Keir Starmer and Slovak opposition head Michal Šimečka spread rapidly on social media before being debunked by fact-checkers.
AI has significantly enhanced the effectiveness of mobile messaging by enabling campaigns to precisely target and personalise communication. However, this capability also introduces significant risks. The line between persuasion and manipulation is becoming increasingly blurred, particularly as AI-generated deepfakes gain sophistication.
Anna Quint, Executive Director of Campaign Verify, warned — in an interview with MEF — that AI-generated content could truly sway an election, especially on the local level, where budgets are smaller, and the electorate is less likely to recognise deepfakes as fabrications.
Regulatory challenges
The rise of mobile messaging during elections has exposed significant regulatory gaps. Unlike public social media platforms, messaging apps operate within closed networks, making it difficult for regulators to monitor content and curb the spread of misinformation. This regulatory void raises concerns about the integrity of the electoral process and the potential for abuse.
Anna Quint emphasised that while tools like Campaign Verify can ensure the identity of political campaigns, broader regulatory measures are needed to address the content and governance of these messages. Without comprehensive regulation, political messaging risks becoming the “wild west”.
Looking ahead, governments and tech companies must collaborate to create regulations that balance privacy with transparency, ensuring accountability in political messaging. The future will likely see increased regulation, stronger data privacy measures, and further integration of advanced technologies like AI, AR, and VR to engage voters in new ways.
The tech accord to combat deceptive use of AI in election campaigns promoted by 25 leading companies, including Amazon, Google, Meta and Open AI, at the margins of the Munich Security Conference in February, is a step in the right direction. But remains nothing more than a letter of intent.
The elections of 2024 have marked a turning point in political communication, with mobile messaging becoming central to campaign strategies. This offers new opportunities for voter engagement, but also presents ethical and regulatory challenges.
As Katie Harbat stated, “The future of political messaging is bright, but it’s up to us to ensure it serves the public good, not just political interests”. The potential for both positive innovation and manipulation is unprecedented. Protecting the integrity of elections and democracy will require careful consideration.
- Riccardo Amati is from MEF (the Mobile Ecosystem Forum), a global trade body established in 2000 and headquartered in the UK with members across the world. As the voice of the mobile ecosystem, it focuses on cross-industry best practices, anti-fraud and monetisation. MEF provides its members with global and cross-sector platforms for networking, collaboration and advancing industry solutions.