- A ban could set precedence for other countries to impose the same measures, especially from those countries that raise national security concerns over the ties that ByteDance has with the Chinese government.
- A ban will create a political dimension in acute tensions between the United States and China.
Facebook’s Meta and Google’s YouTube have the most robust ecosystems for creators, advertisers, and users, making them the likeliest winners if the US happens to enforce the ban on TikTok starting January 19, 2025.
However, smaller platforms like Snap could become much bigger in the coming years, particularly among young Generation Z, those who really value authenticity and closeness in the way they interacted in society.
ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, has been upheld by an Appeals Court on Friday, with the new statute that can compel it to sell its famous short-form video application or having it banned entirely throughout the country. It technically does not ban TikTok; but rather, limits app stores such as Apple’s App Store or even Google Play Store not to distribute it unless ByteDance parts with the social network.
Such a ruling actually knocks TikTok off its feet, but not yet the end of the road. It is expected that the company would move the law to the Supreme Court, which then will seal the final verdict on this matter.
Should the law finally be enforced, the blow will make in terms of TikTok content creators, advertisers, and even the app’s 170 million users. It was in August 2020 that Donald Trump, President, proposed banning TikTok and WeChat, both owned by China.
Courts effectively blocked the action. In June 2021, President Biden rescinded a number of the Trump administration’s orders forbidding new commercial downloads of both WeChat and TikTok. In a turn of events, legislators soon afterwards moved a bill requiring divestiture from ByteDance or else face an outright ban. It was overwhelmingly passed by the US House and then by the Senate.
The president would have to find that TikTok has been rendered to be “deemed a qualified divestiture,” which free it from control of and strictly operate independent from a Chinese entity. When Biden signed the bill in April, a clock began ticking 270 days.
If the President establishes certified pathways to divestiture and demonstrates signs of “significant” advancement toward a potential sale, or binding agreements are reached legally, he may extend the final stage of the deal to an additional 90 days for its finalization.
Should the prohibition, however, take effect, TikTok’s application for the US Apple App Store or Google Play app stores will be removed, making it unavailable for new downloads. Access to the app may be prohibited through ISPs or mobile networks for existing users.
The second scenario involves the US government compelling TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to divest its US business operations within an American company. This has been proposed in the past, with companies like Microsoft and Oracle previously expressing interest.
Global ramifications
It’s a big hit in dollars for the Chinese giant as the loss of the US market is among the biggest and the best markets for TikTok. A ban in the United States could set precedence for other countries to impose the same measures, especially from those countries that raise national security concerns over the ties that ByteDance has with the Chinese government.
But one company will not fail to profit from the ban and that is Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta. The technology company has not only that largest competing engine in the world, but also the mainstream social networking application closest to TikTok for user base and feature set.
Meta launched Reels, which Zuckerberg has continually praised on the earnings calls, as a counterproductive measure against TikTok’s rise.
So basically, the company has been going on all out since 2020 to introduce some new Reels feature that provides a great method through which the users can view more content on the photo-sharing and video-sharing apps, and even beyond that.
Further, since then, we have also seen Meta using AI to modify the recommendation feed, thus making Reels much more addicting so that users not only try it once but enter the never-ending cycle of one video after another as they do on TikTok.
Reels continue to do well, and since these creators of TikTok will eventually migrate to this platform if their chosen app is banned in the US, they will bring along with them their fans as well as their advertisers; this generally boosts Meta’s revenue potential.
Meta is not the only company that would benefit from the ban on TikTok, as other rivals would get a boost from this uplift. It is expected that YouTube would also benefit from the rise of Shorts later. With both advertisements going towards it, a heavy boost would be gained to this much lauded Google owned short-form video service.
This stems from the law of prohibition against TikTok which has been given birth by national security issues relating ByteDance’s ownership of the app and the ties of the company with the Chinese government.
The US officials fear that a Chinese government force could use TikTok as an instrument to spy on American users or the spread of awry pro-China propaganda.
TikTok denied the allegations, while the US has yet to present any direct proofs that the Chinese government is actively using the app to survey its users.
Congress is now acting on behalf of their constituents. The fight over TikTok is within the scope of the Supreme Court now. There is also a tiny possibility that President-elect Trump may throw in his weight for TikTok.
He was the one who started moves to outlaw the social media app in the first place, but now he has mellowed down in that initiative.
China-US relations
The probable deprivation of the US access to TikTok raises real stakes across all levels- economic, social, and political. Most especially, the rumored possibility of banning what is currently the most popular platform in the world, particularly with the younger population, would entail serious outcome consequences.
Mainly, a blanket ban would disturb the entire digital advertising ecosystem. TikTok is a well-to-do territory for the brands that think of making their business with the consumers in new ways.
Now, businesses, especially the small and medium enterprises that have leveraged the unique TikTok algorithm to hit their target audience, will find themselves empty of opportunities to advertise things-as in all possible ways of advertising. And, subsequently, that can cause reduced revenue and consider layoffs in industries relying on that platform for branding.
Socially, it can leave a void in the online expression and creativity. This digital space gives rise to a new community of users sharing culture, social issues, and personal experiences through user-generated content. The ban would limit voices and creativity sustained on the platform, and it would hit the way communities build themselves, as individuals use TikTok to connect over shared interests and experiences.
This ban will create a political dimension in acute tensions between the United States and China. This affects the fact that Tik Tok is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company. This would be seen as an effort to limit the foreign influence in the American digital spaces; hence, it can also lead to retaliation from China, creating further complications in international relations.
Emerging Apps
• BeReal: Aimed at those who detract from heavily curated apps. BeReal’s major attraction is a philosophy that promotes authenticity.
• Triller: Scope of that particular platform introduction has long since been ignored. But again, it has not performed to warrant its existence.
• Pinterest: There is a possibility that Pinterest’s push for video pins will see higher traffic, with new content creators coming looking for outlets.