• Chromebook shipments will increase 50% to 47m units compared to a year ago.
• Chromebook market’s growth, going forward, will mainly depend on regions outside the US as well as non-education applications.
• The laptop market is expected to decline 6% next year to 220m units.

The uptrend in the global demand for laptops is expected to increase this year also, with Chromebooks becoming the primary growth driver.

Laptop shipment is expected to increase 15 per cent year on year to 236 million units this year.

Last year, the shipment increased by 26 per cent due to work from home and distance learning initiatives.

Due to the surging demand for education notebooks, Samsung and Apple will register the highest growths, with the former having Chromebooks account for nearly 50 per cent of its total notebook shipment this year and the latter continuing to release MacBooks equipped with the M1 chip.

According to research firm TrendForce, Chromebooks have been accounting for an increasingly high share in the notebook market in recent years, and Chromebook shipment is expected to reach a historical peak this year at 47 million units, a staggering 50 per cent year-on-year growth.

The vast majority (70 per cent) of global Chromebook demand comes from the US, while Japan takes second place with 10 per cent.

However, the US education notebook market is gradually saturated with Chromebooks, and the general public has also been returning to physical workplaces and classrooms following the lifting of domestic restrictions.

In addition, the Japanese GIGA School program, which equips the student with computers and internet access, has notably slowed down its notebook procurement.

Acer and Samsung to feel the heat

The global demand for education notebooks will, therefore, slightly lose momentum in the second half of this year.

As Chromebooks occupy a relatively large allocation of notebook shipments by Acer and Samsung, the two companies are likely to bear the brunt of the education market’s downturn.

TrendForce, therefore, believes that the Chromebook market’s growth, going forward, will mainly depend on regions outside the US as well as non-education applications.

However, recent rumours claim that the demand for notebooks will decline in the second half of this year.

This decline can be primarily attributed to the fact that notebook brands are increasingly finding Chromebooks’ low margins to be unprofitable, while 11.6-inch panels, which are used in 70 per cent of all Chromebooks, have also skyrocketed in price, and certain semiconductor components are in shortage.

In light of these factors, brands are starting to lower the share of Chromebooks in their overall notebook production for the second half.

TrendForce expects consumer demand in Europe and the US to gradually weaken in the third quarter of this year.

However, low inventory levels in the channel markets will still generate some upward momentum propelling the notebook market. Hence, quarterly notebook shipment in the third quarter is expected to remain unchanged compared to the second quarter.

Furthermore, the pandemic has gradually been brought under control in Europe and the US due to increased vaccinations.

Therefore, the slowdown of demand in the overall notebook market and education sector bids will not come into force until the fourth quarter of this year, during which notebook shipment is expected to reach 58 million units, a three per cent quarter-on-quarter decrease.

Going forward, although notebook demand will likely slow in 2022, the normalisation of the hybrid-work model, as well as the recovering demand for business notebooks, will provide some upward momentum for annual notebook shipment next year, which will reach 220 million units, a minor downward correction of six per cent year on year.