- One of the critical factors shaping ASML’s outlook is the ongoing geopolitical tension between the United States and China.
- US will continue to apply stringent restrictions against China, motivated by a broader narrative of national security amid intense economic competition.
Christophe Fouquet, the CEO of ASML, a leading manufacturer of computer chip equipment, has recently outlined his expectations for the company’s trajectory over the coming years.
In remarks made during a Bloomberg technology conference in London, he indicated that 2026 is anticipated to be a growth year for ASML, despite current challenges, particularly concerning export restrictions to China.
Fouquet’s statements come on the heels of an announcement that growth in 2025 would be tempered due to weaknesses in electronics markets, except for those segments related to artificial intelligence.
The financial caution has been particularly noteworthy given ASML’s reliance on its largest customer, Taiwan’s TSMC, a significant player in the production of chips for companies like Nvidia. While ASML maintains optimism for 2025 growth, it acknowledges that this will occur at a slower pace.
Geopolitical tension
One of the critical factors shaping ASML’s outlook is the ongoing geopolitical tension between the United States and China. Fouquet articulated a belief that regardless of the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election, pressure on exports to China is likely to persist.
He pointed out that the US will continue to apply stringent restrictions, motivated by a broader narrative of national security amid intense economic competition.
Currently, ASML expects that sales in China will constitute only 20 per cent of its total revenue, a significant decline from the 50 per cent observed in recent quarters for older equipment which is not subject to these restrictions.
The shift underscores the challenges faced by the company as it navigates an increasingly complex international landscape. Discussions within Europe about the appropriateness and efficacy of imposing further restrictions reflect a broader uncertainty regarding the impact of such measures on both national security and economic vitality.