China outpaces Western rivals in AI research and influence

• China currently produces AI research outputs that exceed those of the United States, the EU, and the UK combined, commanding more than 40% of global citation attention in the field.
• China leads among G20 nations in overall research output, with nearly 900,000 published papers in 2024—three times the volume from 2015.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly evolved from a niche technological innovation into a critical strategic asset that nations now equate with the importance of energy resources and military power.

Recent comprehensive analyses, including the report titled “DeepSeek and the New Geopolitics of AI: China’s ascent to research pre-eminence in AI” by Daniel Hook, CEO of Digital Science, underscore a pivotal shift in the global landscape of AI research.

Hook’s study, based on data from Dimensions—the world’s largest database on global research ecosystems—reveals that China has not only caught up with but has significantly surpassed traditional Western leaders such as the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom in AI research output and influence.

According to the report, China currently produces AI research outputs that exceed those of the United States, the EU, and the UK combined, commanding more than 40 per cent of global citation attention in the field.

The statistic is not merely a reflection of quantity but underscores China’s growing qualitative influence in AI scholarship and innovation.

Exponential growth

Since 2018, China has steadily established itself as the most influential country in global research, while the EU-27 and the US have gradually receded in relative prominence. The UK, however, has maintained a stable level of influence amidst these global shifts.

One of the most striking indicators of China’s ascendancy is its dominance in AI-related patents. The data points to China outpacing the US tenfold in certain patent filings and AI research affiliated with corporations, demonstrating the country’s robust capacity to convert research into practical and marketable innovations.

The transformation highlights China’s strategic commitment to AI not only as a scientific endeavour but as a driver of economic and technological leadership.

Hook’s analysis spans over two decades, tracking AI research growth from just under 10,000 publications in 2000 to a staggering 60,000 in 2024.

The exponential growth reflects AI’s transition from an experimental technology to a multifaceted strategic resource integral to national interests. Governments worldwide recognise AI’s potential to influence economic competitiveness, social structures, political power, and military capabilities.

Geopolitical rivalry

Hook said that AI is “no longer neutral.” Instead, it is a domain where geopolitical rivalry is increasingly evident, with China actively leveraging its research and innovation edge to secure strategic advantages.

These findings are not isolated.

A corroborating report from Clarivate, a prominent analytics company, indicates that China leads among G20 nations in overall research output, with nearly 900,000 published papers in 2024—three times the volume from 2015.

The report notes a considerable shift toward domestic research collaborations within China, reflecting an intentional strategic focus on national partnerships designed to consolidate AI capabilities internally.

This emerging reality presents profound implications for global power dynamics.

 AI’s classification as a strategic asset comparable to military strength or energy resources signals a new era of technological competition for supremacy. The data clearly illustrate that China is positioning itself at the forefront of this global contest through vast and sustained investment in research, innovation, and capacity-building.