Foldable smartphone shipments to rise by 1.6% to 18.3m units in 2023

• Samsung is expected to lead the pack this year with 68%, followed by Huawei with 14%, Oppo with 5% and Xiaomi with 4%.
• If more Chinese brands pivot and ramp up their global sales game, they might just turbocharge the foldable market’s growth trajectory.

Shipments of foldable smartphones could skyrocket 43 per cent year on year to an 18.3 million units this year, but it only captures a slim 1.6 per cent of the year’s total smartphone market.

Research firm TrendForce said that the shipments are expected to surge by 38 per cent in 2024 to 25.2 million units and by five per cent in 2027 to reach 70 million units.

Even though Samsung, Huawei, Motorola, Google, Vivo, Xiaomi and Oppo have launched foldable phones, other big Chinese brands haven’t joined the bandwagon yet.

When other big Chinese players join the bandwagon, the costs come down – especially panel and hinge expenses—and then the foldable phone prices is likely to potentially slide below the $1,000 threshold.

This year, Samsung once again led the pack, with projections pointing toward a robust 12.5 million unit shipment. But there’s a twist. Its stronghold, a staggering 82 per cent market share in 2022, may slip to 68 per cent this year.

The leaders

It’s because of the surging tidal wave of foldables from Chinese contenders. Huawei clinched the runner-up spot, estimated to have dispatched around 2.5 million foldables for a respectable 14 per cent of the market share.

Hot on their heels were Oppo and Xiaomi, with market shares of five per cent and four per cent, respectively. Other brands have each snagged less than per cent. 

TrendForce sheds light on the fact that Chinese foldable brands, impacted by recent global events, have mostly kept their eyes on home turf, eschewing aggressive overseas expansion.

However, if these brands pivot and ramp up their global sales game, they might just turbocharge the foldable market’s growth trajectory.

And then, there’s Apple—the enigmatic juggernaut. To date, Apple’s foray into foldables has been tepid, to say the least. This restraint has undoubtedly doused consumer fervor for foldable.

Yet, true to form, Apple’s unwavering obsession with user experience could be the culprit. Persistent challenges with foldable tech—think panel evenness and hinge design—might be holding them back.

But here’s the kicker: Achieving perfection with larger foldable panels is somewhat simpler than their smaller counterparts. Could this mean Apple might leapfrog right into medium-sized foldable products—like laptops or tablets? Only time will tell.

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