- Price spikes, tighter allocations, and intensified competition for secure deliveries expected in near term.
A functional impairment of the Strait of Hormuz is emerging as a critical threat to the global technology supply chain, with helium shortages posing a more immediate risk to semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure than crude oil, according to GlobalData.
The research firm says energy markets and policymakers have traditionally focused on crude flows through the Gulf, but the latest disruption underscores a lesser-known chokepoint: shipping routes that deliver noble gases and other specialty inputs required for advanced chipmaking and high-performance computing. Scarce substitutes, limited stockpiles, and concentrated production could magnify the shock, GlobalData notes.
“Oil is the headline commodity in any Gulf disruption, but for the technology sector, the bigger black swan is specialty materials, especially helium,” said Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Companies and Economic Research at GlobalData.
“Semiconductor fabrication, memory production, and high-performance computing rely on stable flows of noble gases. If those flows are impaired, the effects can be faster and harder to manage than an oil price spike.”
Helium has become a central vulnerability due to its role in thermal management, leak detection, and multiple semiconductor process steps, combined with complex purification and tight logistics.
Qatar accounts for roughly 30 per cent of global helium output, according to the US Geological Survey, making Strait disruptions tantamount to sidelining nearly a third of supply. GlobalData warns this could immediately pressure lead times, allocations, and prices, with fabs particularly exposed given limited substitutes and the need to maintain process stability and tool uptime.
Memory manufacturing faces outsized risk
With Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix producing about two-thirds of global memory, helium constraints can quickly ripple through DRAM and NAND pricing, OEM procurement cycles for smartphones, PCs, and storage, and node transition timelines.
Even temporary shortages can force producers to prioritise product lines, slow capacity ramps, and extend maintenance and qualification, potentially lengthening AI server build times given memory’s centrality to GPU platforms. While buffers exist, cylinder availability, purification capacity, transport lead times, and safety rules cap inventory strategies, GlobalData adds.
Beyond semiconductors, execution risks are rising for AI infrastructure in the UAE, where Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Nvidia are building large-scale compute aligned with sovereign AI and national digital goals.
Regional instability and impaired logistics threaten hardware deliveries, spares, networking equipment, and cross-border predictability. “Helium-driven chip delays, especially in memory, could extend lead times, delaying clusters and AI rollouts,” Mundada said.
GlobalData contrasts helium with oil, noting crude disruptions can be cushioned by diversified supply, strategic reserves, and rerouting. Specialty inputs lack such resilience due to concentrated production, limited redundant purification, specialised handling requirements, minimal substitutes, and long qualification cycles in regulated fabs—making modest supply hits disproportionately disruptive.
A strategic resource
In the near term, GlobalData expects price spikes, tighter allocations, and intensified competition for secure deliveries. Over the medium term, companies are likely to accelerate resilience measures: diversify suppliers beyond the Gulf, strike longer-term offtake deals with non-Gulf producers, invest in helium recovery and recycling, expand supply-chain visibility beyond tier-1 vendors, and scrutinise sovereign AI execution risk with contingency planning—steps that require capital and time.
GlobalData recommends immediate actions for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and downstream OEMs: map exposure to Gulf-sourced helium and specialty gases; stress-test fab and supplier continuity under constrained gas allocations; secure secondary logistics routes and contingency suppliers; evaluate recovery systems and process optimisations to cut helium intensity; and coordinate closely with gas vendors on cylinder availability and prioritised deliveries.
“Technology leaders should treat helium and other specialty inputs as strategic resources, not routine consumables,” Mundada concluded.
“Companies that quantify their exposure early and act decisively will be better positioned to protect production continuity, manage costs, and keep AI infrastructure timelines on track.”
