- AI server shipments are forecast to grow by more than 20% in 2026, with AI servers accounting for an increased 17% share of overall server shipment.
- AI server revenue is projected to grow by more than 30% in 2026, accounting for 74% of total server market value.
- 2026 could mark the first time ASIC shipments surpass those of GPUs, gradually chipping away at NVIDIA’s dominance.
In the fast-evolving tech landscape of 2025 and beyond, the global AI server market is entering a fresh phase of expansion—driven by robust cloud spending and new heights in AI adoption.
According to TrendForce’s latest analysis, the world’s largest cloud service providers (CSPs) and the rise of sovereign cloud deployments will keep fueling demand for advanced servers.
The strong demand sets the stage for continued strength in both GPU and custom ASIC pull-ins, as AI moves from experimental phases into core business infrastructure for nearly every tech-forward corporation.
But behind these headline numbers are key shifts every executive should watch. While 2025 previously promised even higher growth, TrendForce has slightly tempered its forecast to about 24 per cent shipment growth.
Competitive landscape set for change
Supply chain realities—like US restrictions on NVIDIA’s H20 shipments to China and delays in new platform launches—have nudged forecasts down. Yet the opportunity remains enormous: new Blackwell full-rack platforms (GB200, GB300) are expected to lift AI server revenues by 48 per cent, thanks to their transformative performance and scalability.
Looking ahead, 2026 could prove even more pivotal. As GPU vendors pivot to integrated, rack-level solutions and cloud giants pour more capital into custom ASIC-based infrastructures, AI server revenue is projected to soar by over 30 per cent once again.
By then, nearly three-quarters of the total server market value will come from AI-centric machines—a dramatic shift that will reward innovative vendors and agile buyers alike.
But the competitive landscape is set for change. NVIDIA, the incumbent, still commands about 70 per cent of the AI chip market for now.
However, as North American and Chinese players ramp up efforts in custom ASICs, 2026 could mark the first time ASIC shipments surpass those of GPUs, gradually chipping away at NVIDIA’s dominance.
No less dramatic is the surge in demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), the backbone for high-end AI chips. In 2025, HBM consumption is forecast to more than double, with rapid growth continuing into 2026—even after a 70 per cent jump in HBM demand.
The reason? The insatiable appetite for generative AI and the advance of memory-hungry platforms from Google, AWS, and third-party silicon innovators.
Executives and procurement teams have additional pricing dynamics to consider. Hot demand for HBM3e has pushed prices up by 5–10 per cent in 2025, but relief is on the horizon: by 2026, Samsung’s qualification will bring the market to a three-way supplier race, allowing buyers to regain bargaining power.
For those able to leap to HBM4, premium pricing (and profit margins) are expected to hold—at least until all memory majors clear qualification, which could reignite tough negotiations.
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