Samsung to fuel foldable smartphone shipments this year

• Shipments will increase by 66.6% to 13.5 million in 2022 and reach 41.5m in 2026, IDC says
• Nabila Popal says the biggest question today is whether foldables will become mainstream anytime soon?

Foldable smartphone shipments will increase by 66.6 per cent to 13.5 million units this year compared to a year ago, fuelled by Samsung’s Flip and Fold lineup.

“The recent launch of the Galaxy Z Flip 4 and Fold 4 will once again shine a spotlight on the entire category as Samsung continues to be the gold standard for foldable devices in the market,” Anthony Scarsella, research manager at International Data Corporation, said.

Recent technological advancements are encouraging individuals to shift from personal computers and laptops to foldable phone to perform various professional or personal tasks. 

Leading players in the market such as Huawei and Samsung have been at the fore of foldable phone technology and they are expected to continue releasing newer products in the market.

New entrants

According to Counterpoint Research, Samsung enjoyed dominant market share of foldables, accounting for 62 per cent of the market in the first half of this year while Huawei and OPPO came in a distant second and third.

Jene Park, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, said that Samsung has led the market since the beginning, and expects its dominance to continue for some time.

Huawei, OPPO, Xiaomi and vivo are all introducing new foldables but they are mostly limited to the Chinese market. Motorola may be the only contender in markets like the US for now.

“We expect the new Galaxy Fold 4 and Flip 4 combo to continue Samsung’s momentum in the space and sell close to nine million units this year, helping the company’s second half foldables share to jump to 80 per cent.”

Grabs more consumer attention

Moreover, IDC projects that foldable phone shipments will reach 41.5 million units in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.7 per cent from 2022 to 2026.

“We expect the newly updated models will outperform their predecessors and grab more consumer attention in the category. The commercial segment of the market remains ripe for utilizing foldables as two-in-one devices that can replace both a phone and a tablet,” Scarsella said.

Although IDC still believes this use case remains a low priority, falling prices and new business use cases make the idea more appealing moving forward. Next year will bring 55.1 per cent growth for foldables with continued double-digit growth throughout the forecast period.

Price remains a pain point

“The new launches from Samsung have brought incremental but critical improvements over their predecessors. The success of these devices should be a strong indicator of how foldables will evolve and capture consumers moving forward. While the price remains a pain point for consumers, the $999 starting price may be accepted by consumers given that most consumer goods have seen price increases due to inflation in 2022,” Scarsella said.

However, Nabila Popal, research director at IDC, said that the biggest question today is whether foldables will become mainstream anytime soon?

“Unfortunately, the answer is no,” she said.

“To me, mainstream means volume, and volume is dominated by cheaper, sub-$400 phones. While it may be tempting for vendors to swoop in with lower selling prices to generate an initial boost in sales, I strongly believe that is not a good move – especially not at the expense of quality and user experience.”

Foldables should remain a niche and premium flagship device, she said and added that vendors should focus on improving user experience and building to increase confidence in the category and generate long-term growth.

“I believe foldables are the future of premium Android devices even if, as a whole, they are only expected to capture less than three per cent of global volume by the end of our forecast period.”