Samsung to ship 30% fewer units of S21 smartphone than S10

• Korean giant to launch three Galaxy S21 variants next week, one month earlier than expected.
• Stellar iPhone 12 performance is taking the wind out of competitors’ sails by dominating promotions, shelf space and the online space.

Samsung’s upcoming smartphone launch – Galaxy S21 – is expected to perform slightly better than last year’s S20 but to fall significantly short of the S10 due to intensifying competition and uncertain 2021.

The world’s largest smartphone vendor will launch its S21 series smartphone on January 14, one month earlier than expected at the company’s Galaxy Unpacked 2021 press conference.

Leaks indicate three new phones will be introduced – the S21, S21 Plus and S21 Ultra and show the new devices as refreshes of the S20, with improvements including faster performance via Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 888 chip, enhanced camera set up, a sleeker design and the possibility of an S Pen.

Counterpoint Research estimates that the S21 will ship almost 30 per cent fewer units over four quarters than 2019’s Galaxy S10.

Several factors have led to this year’s more muted forecasts including extended replacement cycles, uncertainty around pricing, a more crowded competitive environment and proximity to the iPhone 12 launch.

 “Galaxy launch dates over the past two years have crept closer to the iPhone but prices have not. Last year’s delay from Apple coupled with an accelerated launch from Samsung puts the S21 within 12 weeks of the iPhone 12 launch – this is not ideal from a price comparison standpoint,” Sujeong Lim, Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, said.

Better specifications do put the Galaxy S21 at a higher price point but Lim believes Samsung is likely feeling pressure to keep prices as low as possible.

S21 prices leaked

“The iPhone 12 is hitting a massive sweet spot with its $749 entry price. Furthermore, we are now in mid-winter, with the impact of Covid-19 only intensifying across key markets. Pricing will need to improve from S20 levels for Samsung to avoid disappointment,” she said.

Belgian carrier Voo had accidentally leaked the prices before removing it. Voo listed the base variant of the Samsung Galaxy S21 at EUR 849 ($1,040), the Galaxy S21+ at EUR 1,049 ($1,285) and the Galaxy S21 Ultra at EUR 1,399 ($1,714).

Jeff Fieldhack, Counterpoint Research’s Director of US Mobile Devices and Carrier Strategies, highlighted the potential impact of releasing too close to Apple’s launch in key markets like the US.

 “Stellar iPhone 12 performance is not only helping Apple have its best iPhone year ever, it is taking the wind out of competitors’ sails by dominating promotions, shelf space and the online space. Also, in the North America market, there is a post-holiday lull of flagship sales in January and February, making it a challenging time to make a significant product launch.”

An early Galaxy S21 launch is likely a tactic to capitalise on Huawei woes, with Samsung looking to fill the vacuum. “However, the smartphone space has become very crowded across all segments,” Lim said.

“Not only are Chinese vendors introducing many mid-to-low end devices with competitive specs, but they are also releasing more super-premium devices. The S10 was competing with around 48 ‘$800-plus’ models in 2018, but the S21 will have to contend with over 65.”