Global foldable phone shipments to rise by 11% to 17.7m in 2024

• Samsung aims to maintain its market share of around 60%, consistent with its 2023 target while Huawei is expected to attain about 20%.
• Apple’s potential entry into the foldable phone market could significantly spur market growth.
• Oppo and Vivo hint at shelving their plans for launching smaller, vertically folding devices this year.

Global shipments of foldable smartphones are expected to increase by 11 per cent to 17.7 million units in 2024 when compared to 15.9 million units in 2023.

According to research firm TrendForce, it accounts for about 1.5 per cent of the overall smartphone market in 2024. In 2023, the market share was about 1.4 per cent.

However, this growth rate remains below market expectations, with the segment’s share predicted to exceed two per cent only by 2025.

The slowdown in the growth of foldable phones is attributed to two main factors – firstly, consumer retention is low due to frequent maintenance issues faced by first-time foldable phone users, leading to a lack of confidence in the product.

As a result, users may opt for high-end flagship smartphones when considering replacements.

Secondly, the current price points of foldable phones have yet to reach the sweet spot for consumers, making it challenging to meet sales targets based solely on pricing.

UTG, hinges may see mass production

TrendForce notes that future developments in the foldable smartphone market are closely tied to the pace of cost optimisation.

Key components such as UTG and hinges could see mass production following standardisation, significantly reducing costs.

Additionally, an increase in foldable panel shipments by Chinese panel makers—who offer a price advantage over Korean suppliers—is expected to further lower the cost of foldable phones.

This would enable brands to reduce sale prices and accelerate market penetration rates.

Looking ahead to 2024, Samsung aims to maintain its foldable phone market share of around 60%, consistent with its 2023 target.

Huawei, in contrast, is aggressively boosting its foldable phone shipments, aiming for a market share that could surpass 20%.

Meanwhile, Oppo and Vivo have hinted at shelving their plans for launching smaller, vertically folding devices this year, opting instead to channel their efforts into larger, horizontally folding models due to concerns over high costs impacting profitability.

Honor to join the fray this year

On the flip side, Huawei is on track to unveil a 5G-enabled small vertical folding device, and Honor, yet to make its debut in the compact foldable sector, is anticipated to enter the competition this year.

While numerous smartphone brands are diving into the foldable phone arena, one notable absentee is Apple, which has yet to formally announce its plans for foldable phones.

Despite sporadic rumours about Apple assessing essential components for foldable devices, including requesting samples and tests for panels and hinges, TrendForce notes it remains uncertain whether Apple will embark on developing a foldable phone product.

Nevertheless, it’s widely anticipated that Apple’s potential entry into the foldable phone market could significantly spur market growth.