Mobile data service market in India to grow by 9.3%

• 5G technology emerging as the principal driver of growth amid declining traditional voice revenues.
• Mobile voice service revenues to contract at a CAGR of 2.5% between 2024 and 2029.
• Monthly data consumption over mobile networks to surge from 23.9GB in 2024 to 51.5GB in 2029, primarily driven by the heightened consumption of online video content and social media on smartphones.
• Reliance Jio is projected to lead the mobile service market in terms of subscriptions through 2029.

The mobile telecommunications landscape in India is poised for dynamic growth and transformation between 2024 and 2029, driven predominantly by increasing mobile data service revenues and the widespread adoption of advanced network technologies like 4G and 5G.

According to recent analyses from GlobalData, mobile data service revenue is projected to expand at a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3 per cent over this period.

The growth is propelled by the extensive roll-out of 4G and 5G networks across the country, substantial consumption of mobile data services, and notably, the rising subscription to higher average revenue per user (ARPU) yielding 5G plans.

While mobile data services demonstrate robust growth, this surge will effectively offset the anticipated decline in mobile voice service revenues, which are expected to contract at a CAGR of 2.5 per cent.

The decline is largely due to evolving consumer preferences favouring internet-based communication platforms and the common availability of free voice minutes bundled within mobile service packages. Consequently, the ARPU from traditional voice services is witnessing a downward trend.

Despite this contraction in voice revenue, Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, said the total mobile services market in India is forecasted to maintain appreciable growth, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 5.4 per cent, climbing from $30.2 billion in 2023 to an estimated $39.3 billion by 2029.

“The growth trajectory is further supported by increased mobile service penetration, especially in rural and underserved regions, contributing significantly to market expansion.”

5G: A crucial catalyst

The proliferation of mobile data usage is striking, with GlobalData forecasting an increase in average monthly data consumption over mobile networks from 23.9GB in 2024 to 51.5GB in 2029, primarily driven by the heightened consumption of online video content and social media on smartphones, facilitated by data-centric packages offered by telecommunications operators.

In terms of network technology, Mahananda  said the 4G will continue to dominate in subscription numbers until 2026, after which 5G subscriptions are expected to surpass 4G and attain a 67 per cent share of total mobile subscriptions by 2029.

The ongoing expansion of 5G networks is a crucial catalyst for this shift, with major operators like Vodafone Idea planning to extend 5G services across all 17 telecommunications circles by August 2025, having already launched these services in key metropolitan and regional cities.

The accelerated adoption of 5G technology is further bolstered by the increasing availability and ownership of 5G-enabled smartphones alongside promotional and value-added 5G plans.

For instance, Reliance Jio Infocomm’s innovative “5G Upgrade Voucher” targets prepaid customers, allowing access to unlimited 5G data for a year, thereby facilitating an easier transition for users without eligible plans.

“Reliance Jio is projected to lead the mobile service market in terms of subscriptions through 2029, leveraging its extensive 4G network infrastructure and aggressive 5G expansion strategies to meet the growing demand for high-speed mobile services,” Mahananda said.