MEA to become second biggest yearly growth market for PCs in 2024

• Global PC market set for 8% growth to 257m units in 2024, a return to 2019 shipment levels.
• OEMs, processor manufacturers, and operating system providers to focus on delivering new AI-capable models in 2024.
• Canalys believes the first deployments of AI-capable PCs to businesses will be limited to specific organisation types and employee roles.
• OEMs and the channel will see strong revenue opportunities both from selling higher-ASP AI-capable PCs and from the proliferation of new services centered on AI optimisation.
• 2024 will also bring a proliferation of Arm-based PCs, largely driven by Qualcomm’s X Elite chip.

Middle East and Africa (MEA) is expected to become the second biggest yearly growth market for PC shipments, after Latin America, next year.

According to the latest Canalys forecasts, the MEA market is expected to witness a year-on-year growth of 11.6 per cent in 2024 to 14.4 million units, compared to 12.9 million units this year.

In 2022, the shipments stood at 13 million units.

Globally, the market is on the verge of recovery following seven consecutive quarters of decline and is expected to return to growth of five per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, boosted by a strong holiday season and an improving macroeconomic environment. 

Looking ahead, full-year 2024 shipments are forecast to hit 267 million units, witnessing an eight per cent higher than in 2023, helped by tailwinds including the Windows refresh cycle and emergence of AI-capable and Arm-based devices.  

Fresh demand

Ben Yeh, Canalys Analyst, said that the global PC market is on a recovery path and set to return to 2019 shipment levels by next year.

“The impact of AI on the PC industry will be profound, with leading players across OEMs, processor manufacturers, and operating system providers focused on delivering new AI-capable models in 2024. These initiatives will bolster refresh demand, particularly in the commercial sector.”

A new generation of AI-enabled PCs is a hybrid of cloud and on-device computing to enable people to supercharge their productivity and unleash their creativity.

Driving a paradigm shift toward the era of the “AI PC”, which will greatly improve performance, security and personalisation, even though it is still in its infancy.

Faster processing power

Canalys believes the first deployments of AI-capable PCs to businesses will be limited to specific organisation types and employee roles.

Examples include research and development, developers, engineers, data analysts and artists.

These early adopters will take advantage of AI-enabled PCs’ faster processing power when working on specific tasks. Game developers will be able to generate entire levels based on a small manually created section that the AI trains itself with.

Designers can give the AI rough sketches to build and iterate on. Scientists will be able to run complex models faster, as the processing doesn’t have to do a round trip to the cloud.

Developers and data analysts can use their PCs’ AI capabilities to quickly identify trends in their data, all while having total confidence in their security as the data never leaves the devices.

Strong revenue opportunities

Yeh said the total shipment share of AI-capable PCs is expected to be about 19 per cent in 2024, accounting for all M-series Mac products alongside the nascent offerings expected in the Windows ecosystem.

However, as more compelling use cases emerge and AI functionality becomes an expected feature, he said that Canalys anticipates a fast ramp-up in the development and adoption of AI-capable PCs. 

OEMs and the channel will see strong revenue opportunities both from selling higher-ASP AI-capable PCs and from the proliferation of new services centred on AI optimisation.

Canalys believes that over the next five years, the market will see a proliferation of AI-capable PCs, the emergence of a marketplace of fine-tuned LLMs and AI tools, and revamped operating systems defined by strong AI integration.

All eyes on SMBs

Channel partners will play an important role in evangelizing the benefits of AI-capable PCs and tools as their intimate knowledge of customers’ business needs will be vital to help navigate a new area of complexity. 

Ishan Dutt, Canalys Principal Analyst, said the commercial segment is poised for a demand bump in 2024, following a prolonged period of delayed purchasing. 

“Channel sentiment around PC business performance next year is positive, with 47 per cent of partners polled in November anticipating their Windows PC shipments to grow 10 per cent or more next year. SMBs have been highlighted as a strong opportunity, with the recent macroeconomic difficulties having had a proportionally larger impact on their ability to budget for PC procurement over the last several quarters.” 

Moreover, he said that 2024 will also bring a proliferation of Arm-based PCs, largely driven by Qualcomm’s X Elite chip. 

While uptake is initially likely to be restrained, particularly in commercial settings, he added the ability to deliver improvements in power efficiency and battery life “will be a boon to offerings partners can bring to customers.”